Nominations voting is from January 8-12, 2025, with official Oscar nominations announced January 17, 2025. Final voting is February 11-18, 2025. And finally, the 97th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 2 and air live on ABC at 7:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT. We update our picks through awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2025 Oscar predictions.
The State of the Race
Like it or not, the state of the movie business is at a point where the Best Adapted Screenplay conversation starts around which major sequels are Oscar contenders. Even with its tepid critical response, it is hard not to throw âInside Out 2â on the list when the first one received a Best Original Screenplay nomination and won Best Animated Feature in 2016. Plus, the Pixar film has been the most successful 2024 theatrical release so far, coming out at a time where box-office analysts were ready to throw in the towel on the year.
âDune: Part Twoâ also got the year off to a great start, significantly outgrossing its predecessor and receiving better reviews. Even with the Writing branchâs hesitation around nominating sequels, filmmaker Denis Villeneuve and screenwriter Jon Spaihts, previously nominated for âDune,â are likely to get credit again for their confident take on a sci-fi novel once considered unadaptable.
Both âGladiatorâ and âJokerâ received screenplay Oscar nominations, so sight unseen both âGladiator IIâ and âJoker: Folie Ă Deuxâ make the list of scripts with Academy Award potential. But as proven by âFuriosa: A Mad Max Saga,â a poor performance at the box office could quickly dampen those odds.
Interestingly, contenders âHit Manâ and âSing Singâ played at the 2023 Toronto International Film Festival alongside âAmerican Fiction,â which won this Oscar category in March. Similar to Cord Jeffersonâs Audience Award winner, both films are major crowdpleasers that proved they can sustain months of awards conversations and balance humor and heart with their spin on real-life events.
Given how many recent winners are literary adaptations of source material published in the last couple decades, it is safe to put an upcoming film like âThe Nickel Boys,â a Colson Whitehead adaptation, or Marielle Hellerâs adaptation of Rachel Yoderâs popular 2021 novel âNightbitch,â on list of screenplays that likely to be on awards votersâ radars. However, thinking about the films that actually won this category, like âJojo Rabbit,â âWomen Talking,â or âAmerican Fiction,â it may be more beneficial to adapt smaller novels rather than ones that won major literary prizes. May who see âConclaveâ or âThe Wild Robotâ wonât even know the films are based on books, and that could be to their benefit.
Potential nominees are listed in alphabetical order; no film will be deemed a frontrunner until we have seen it.
Frontrunners:
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence âDivine Eyeâ Maclin, and John âDivine Gâ Whitfield (âSing Singâ)
Dave Holstein, Meg LeFauve, and Kelsey Mann (âInside Out 2â)
Richard Linklater and Glen Powell (âHit Manâ)
Jeff Nichols (âThe Bikeridersâ)
Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve (âDune: Part Twoâ)
Contenders:
Joslyn Barnes and RaMell Ross (âThe Nickel Boysâ)
Peter Brown and Chris Sanders (âThe Wild Robotâ)
Audrey Diwan and Rebecca Zlotowski (âEmanuelleâ)
Robert Eggers (âNosferatuâ)
Marielle Heller and Rachel Yoder (âNightbitchâ)
Winnie Holzman (âWickedâ)
Barry Jenkins (âThe Fire Insideâ)
Claire Keegan and Enda Walsh (âSmall Things Like Theseâ)
Justin Kuritzkes (âQueerâ)
Nico Lathouris and George Miller (âFuriosa: A Mad Max Sagaâ)
Todd Phillips and Scott Silver (âJoker: Folie Ă Deuxâ)
Eric Roth and Robert Zemeckis (âHereâ)
David Scarpa (âGladiator IIâ)
Peter Straughan (âConclaveâ)
Malcolm Washington, Virgil Williams, and August Wilson (âThe Piano Lessonâ)